Besides that one is aware of issues have hit a brand new low when the one time of the yr that the nation is assured of electrical energy is through the three-week festive season vacation break.
That is when all trade and building has shut down, and far of the home cooking revolves across the braai hearth. It is that point of the yr when essentially the most onerous burden on Eskom is to maintain the fairy lights flickering on the Christmas tree, which, in any case, are these days typically photo voltaic powered.
It is also a brand new low for South Africa when President Cyril Ramaphosa’s solemn hand-on-heart promise to the nation that there could be no load shedding between December 17 and January 13 had been damaged by January four.
The King Canute-like failure of CR to decree a nationwide energy provide is emblematic of the failure of a “command” financial system of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
It additionally indicators the president’s normal political impotence. Given the speed at which Ramaphosa is at current effecting change, he must be president for all times to make the mandatory impression. We should not have that lengthy.
When the ultimate figures are crunched, 2019 will probably be proven to have registered near zero p.c progress.
And whereas analysts are prattling excitedly about progress in 2020 being as a lot as 1.7%, everybody is aware of that due to personal sector job losses and inhabitants progress, South Africa wants at the very least double that quantity.
The size of the issue is proven by the SA Income Service (Sars) statistics simply launched. Sars paints a bleak image: “Actual GDP has grown slower than inhabitants progress for 5 consecutive years, and our present GDP efficiency on a per capita foundation, is the weakest because the 1960s.”
The company sector contributed 18% of the tax income, however there have been about 600000 fewer firms registered in 2017/18, in contrast with the earlier yr, and of these registered, just one in 4 made any taxable earnings.
A mere 380 entities pay 57% of the tax collected from firms.
The dependence on the person taxpayer is big, with 38% of presidency income coming from this supply. However out of a inhabitants of 56m, 3m folks pay 97% of private tax and a minuscule 190000 – incomes greater than R1m a yr – paid 37%.
We all know from the federal government’s Medium-Time period Price range Coverage Assertion final yr that 29000 public servants now earn greater than R1m a yr, a determine that has doubled in a decade.
So, the creation of wealth, in each the self-employed and company sectors, is dependent upon a relatively tiny variety of folks – fewer than 160000 people.
But, with the destruction of personal well being care and the expropriation of personal property, the federal government is doing every little thing it could to alienate this group.
The Skilled Provident Society has simply surveyed its members, discovering that 72% of all professionals would go away if the Nationwide Well being Insurance coverage Invoice is applied in its present kind.
About 40% of the SA Medical Affiliation’s members maintain comparable sentiments.
That is about the identical because the 41% of all well being professionals who, in a Solidarity survey, mentioned they had been contemplating emigrating, and of whom, 21% had already taken steps in direction of doing so.
Even when “solely” one in 10 of these considering emigration will truly accomplish that within the subsequent two years, the financial impact will probably be calamitous.
The tax base will shrink, making unattainable a system supporting 17.6million social grant recipients, 1.3million public servants, 920 elected nationwide and provincial representatives, about 700 SOEs, 62 Cupboard ministers and deputies, and that single ornamental cuckoo on the prime of the Christmas tree.
The federal government must both lower out the deadwood or watch the tree topple over.
Maybe worse, for the hopes of eventual restoration, is that the nationwide information retailer will probably be grievously depleted by that scale of emigration. Institutional reminiscence will probably be irretrievably misplaced.
Yr 2020, the start of a brand new decade. Or possibly simply one other step on the tripartite alliance’s mission, heading in direction of a revolutionary, Pol Pot kind of Yr Zero.
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